Macroeconomic Forecasts

Baseline Scenario
Garanti BBVA Macroeconomic Forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2026
CPI (eop) 64,8% 45,0% 25,0% 18,5%
GDP Growth  4,5% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8%
GDP (Billion TL) 26.276 42.893 58.071 73.100
GDP (Billion USD) 1.119 1.187 1.320 1.470
GDP Deflator 67,5% 57,7% 30,9% 21,2%
Per Capita Income (USD) 13.110 13.577 14.933 16.459
2-year Benchmark Bond Yield (eop, compound) 39,7% 32,0% 24,5% 21,7%
CBRT One-Week Repo Rate (eop) 42,5% 45,0% 30,0% 22,0%
CBRT Funding Rate (average) 20,3% 45,0% 37,4% 25,2%
USDTRY (eop) 29,44 42,00 45,50 53,00
USDTRY (average) 23,74 35,90 43,90 49,56
EUROTRY (eop) 32,57 46,61 52,85 62,87
EUROTRY (average) 25,68 39,27 50,10 58,25
Currency Basket (eop) 31,01 44,31 49,17 57,94
Currency Basket (average) 24,71 37,59 47,00 53,90
Parity (eop) 1,11 1,11 1,16 1,19
Current Account Balance (Billion USD) -45,2 -23,6 -32,1 -34,7
Current Account Balance/GDP -4,0% -2,0% -2,4% -2,4%
Foreign Trade Balance (Billion USD) -106 -92 -109 -120
Foreign Trade Balance/GDP -9,5% -7,8% -8,2% -8,1%
CG Primary Balance/GDP -2,7% -1,7% 0,5% 0,9%
CG Budget Balance/GDP -5,2% -5,2% -3,4% -3,0%

*As of March 2024